For Russia’s chief mercenary, a photo suggests it's business as usual after a mutiny and exile
NBCFEB 22 2023
The Facts
In his first video address since leading an aborted mutiny in Russia in June, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has claimed he is working hard "to make Russia even greater" and to help Africa become "even more free."
In the video, shared by a Telegram channel linked to the Russian mercenary group, Prigozhin claimed his troops are exploring for minerals and "making life a nightmare for Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, and other bandits."
Prigozhin — who appeared armed and dressed in military garb, holding a rifle in a desert area — stated that Wagner is conducting surveillance and search operations and "hiring real bogatyrs" [ancient Slavic warriors] to "fulfill the tasks that were set before us and that we promised we would handle."
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
Branding Prigozhin a traitor and sending him into exile in neighboring Belarus were plainly false flags intended to deceive the West, expand Wagner's and Putin's influence in Africa, spark a major regional crisis, and enrich the backyards of the Russians with illicit business deals.
Pro-Russia narrative
There's no evidence that Prigozhin is continuing to move in and out of Russia, or that this latest video was filmed in Africa. After all criminal charges against him and the Wagner fighters who participated in the mutiny were dropped, Moscow considers the Prigozhin-era over.
Metaculus Prediction
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
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