West Africa: Over 1.8K Terror Attacks Recorded in 2023

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The Spin

Narrative A

Though violent extremism is spilling over from the Sahel to coastal states in West Africa, a purely military response to the existential threat will fall short of protecting innocent citizens. Such actions would fail to tackle the root causes enabling and fueling the emergence of jihadis in the region or stop retaliatory attacks. Governments must focus on breaking terrorists' supply chains if they are serious about addressing domestic terrorism.

Narrative B

While the Sahel and West Africa attacks have been linked to jihadists for decades, the Westphalian state crisis has been a potent force behind the continuous aggression. Violent extremist groups, ethnic leaders, and foreign powers are operating in the region, and they are very much part of the years-long multi-dimensional conflict in West Africa. Simply blaming terrorism for the region's apathy will not help it recover.

Metaculus Prediction


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