Bolivia: Army General Arrested After Alleged Failed Coup Attempt

Bolivia: Army General Arrested After Alleged Failed Coup Attempt
Above: An armored truck is seen parked at Plaza Murillo on June 26, 2024 in La Paz, Bolivia. Image copyright: Gaston Brito Miserocchi/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Given the history of likely US-backed coups in Latin America — including in Chile and Argentina — as well as Arce's recent application to join Russia and China's BRICS alliance, it would make sense that the US is potentially behind this. Arce is also critical of Israel and runs a nation rich with lithium, which would give Washington even more of a motive to meddle in Bolivia's affairs.

Pro-establishment narrative

Given Bolivia's unprecedented 23 coup attempts since 1950, historical analysts can safely say this was not some grand conspiracy to overthrow Arce's government. Real coups are conducted in the dark and include the arrest of the president and his cabinet. This was a simple spat between officials in a country run by a weak government and inhabited by an impassioned electorate.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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