Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
MetaculusOCT 2024
Bosnia's Security Minister Arrested Over Alleged Graft
Above: Nenad Nešić (R) at a joint press conference in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina on June 7, 2023. Image copyright: Samir Jordamovic/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative B
Everything about the way this investigation was brought and how the arrests were hastily carried out reeks of foul play. This is an unacceptable procedure and likely a political persecution that has unfairly targeted RS officials.