Brazil's Treasury Forecasts Multibillion Primary Deficit in 2024

Brazil's Treasury Forecasts Multibillion Primary Deficit in 2024
Above: Brazil's Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron during an interview in Brasilia on July 27, 2023. Image copyright: Andressa Anholete/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

With a remarkable surplus in October and an expected strong finish to the year, Brazil is set to meet fiscal targets this year as the government has focused on increasing its revenues through taxes and slashing expenditures in an effort to maintain economic stability.

Narrative B

Though the Brazilian economy is outperforming expectations, government finances remain a matter of concern. Initially planned for next year, a primary surplus is now planned only for 2026 — and many expect that to occur only in 2029 amid fears that the government would run deficits within the tolerance margin.

Metaculus Prediction


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!