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China Q3 GDP Growth Slows to 4.6%

  • #China
  • #Economic conditions & trends
  • #East Asia
  • #COVID-19
China Q3 GDP Growth Slows to 4.6%
story
OCT 2024
Above: A newly built residential complex in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province. Investment in real estate development across China fell by 10.1% year-on-year in January-September period of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Photo taken on Oct.17. Image copyright: CFOTO/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images
story last updated NOV 2024

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

This latest data paints a significantly pessimistic outlook compared to a July survey, which predicted 5.0% growth in 2024. The assumption currently is that China will miss its aim, falling to 4.8% in 2024 and maybe cooling further by 2025. The government is under pressure to implement new stimulus programs, while consumers are hoping for deflationary actions.

Reuters

Pro-China narrative

Despite a slower third quarter, China's economy still beat estimates and is on track to meet its 5% growth target. Economic growth remains at 4.8% year-over-year, and Beijing has taken adequate measures to boost consumer confidence. China can afford to expand at a slightly slower pace in the third quarter while still meeting its full-year growth objective.

ING Think

Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper

The US-China Conflict
Context
+5
AUG 2022AUG 2022

Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

China’s economy grows at a 4.6% rate in the last quarter, falls short of the official 5% target
Associated PressOCT 2024
China posts slowest growth since aftermath of ‘zero COVID’ curbs
Al JazeeraOCT 2024
Tosv2.Html
BloombergOCT 2024

More neutral establishment stance articles

China’s economy grows at a 4.6% rate in the last quarter, falls short of the official target
IndependentOCT 2024