China Q3 GDP Growth Slows to 4.6%

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OCT 18 2024

Above: A newly built residential complex in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province. Investment in real estate development across China fell by 10.1% year-on-year in January-September period of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Photo taken on Oct.17. Image copyright: CFOTO/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Imagesstory last updated NOV 15 2024

The Facts

According to new data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, released on Friday, the nation's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the three months to September was 4.6%, the lowest since early last year.
Though this rate missed the 5% threshold for the second quarter in a row, it beat market expectations of 4.5%.
This comes as Beijing announced a series of measures in September, including slashing interest rates and dropping mortgage rates, which resulted in a record market surge.

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

This latest data paints a significantly pessimistic outlook compared to a July survey, which predicted 5.0% growth in 2024. The assumption currently is that China will miss its aim, falling to 4.8% in 2024 and maybe cooling further by 2025. The government is under pressure to implement new stimulus programs, while consumers are hoping for deflationary actions.

Reuters

Pro-China narrative

Despite a slower third quarter, China's economy still beat estimates and is on track to meet its 5% growth target. Economic growth remains at 4.8% year-over-year, and Beijing has taken adequate measures to boost consumer confidence. China can afford to expand at a slightly slower pace in the third quarter while still meeting its full-year growth objective.

ING Think