Tokyo Police Arrest Man After Attack on Japan's Ruling Party Headquarters

Tokyo Police Arrest Man After Attack on Japan's Ruling Party Headquarters
Above: A fire truck and police vehicles block off access in front of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in central Tokyo on October 19, 2024, after a man threw Molotov cocktail-like objects outside the building and hit a riot police vehicle. Image copyright: STR/JIJI Press/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

For the third year in a row, Japan has experienced a severe act of political violence — and this instance has come just a week before a general election. While the country is historically no stranger to such incidents, this new trend is deeply concerning, as desperate lone wolves are getting more and more brazen.

Narrative B

This attack was indeed a grave incident, and hopefully there were no serious consequences. However, one shouldn't diminish the significance of this incident but suggesting it's unconnected to growing frustration with the selective Japanese political system and the country's political elite, particularly the ongoing dominance of the long-ruling Liberal Democrats.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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