France's far-right firewall holds, but with signs of cracks
NBCJUL 2024
French Elections: New Popular Front Wins Most Seats
Above: Thousands gather on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left-wing parties, came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. Image copyright: Remon Haazen/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
After being harshly criticized for announcing snap elections, Macron's gamble to call on the French electorate to decide for or against the values of the Fifth Republic has largely paid off. Yes, Sunday's winners now face the complex task of forming a coalition, but the key message remains that the EU's second-largest economy decided to defend its democracy against the far right. However, the French citizenry must remain vigilant, as the National Rally will use every populist tactic to pressure the Republican front.
Narrative B
This disappointing outcome is the result of anti-National Rally propaganda by the so-called "Republican front" and tactical power games by Macron's alliance. Now, France is facing the formation of a coalition of disparate parties for which the French constitution was not designed. This means that the Fifth Republic is heading for political instability and deadlock, with major implications for Europe and the financial markets. The stage is set for a National Rally victory in 2027.