Germany’s AfD has become its own worst enemy
Spectator (UK)APR 25 2024
German Chancellor Urges 'Firewall' Around AfD
Above: Björn Hocke, lead candidate for the AfD in the Thuringia state elections, on Aug. 02, 2024 in Altenburg, Thuringia, Germany. Image copyright: Sean Gallup/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged all mainstream democratic parties to try to form stable governments in Thuringia and Saxony without the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), to try to keep the party away from any political influence in what has been characterized as a "firewall."
This followed Sunday's regional election in Thuringia and Saxony, eastern Germany, where the AfD party received 32.8% and 30.6% of the votes, respectively.
The AfD and its controversial state leader Björn Höcke's victory in Thuringia was the first victory of a party considered far-right in a German state election since World War II.
The Spin
Narrative A
The election results in Thuringia and Saxony are a cause of anxiety for the Social Democrats and their coalition allies. However, the AfD must be prevented from gaining any significant political power. The AfD poses a threat to Germany, undermining the economy and dividing society. All democratic parties must work together to build stable governments free of right-wing extremism.
Narrative B
The AfD is the people's party for Thuringia and the eastern part of the country. The people have given the AfD a strong mandate to govern. Mr. Scholz is now trying to weaken the democratic participation of a large section of the population. Any attempts to block or freeze out the AfD are manifestly undemocratic and should be ignored. This is a dangerously autocratic move.
Narrative C
Anti-establishment parties are changing the German landscape. The conservative CDU has stated it would not rule with the extreme right, making it difficult to form a new government in Thuringia. In order to keep the far right out, the CDU will require left-wing parties on the left, Die Linke or Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, to create a government coalition, which is improbable.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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