Labour would lose nearly 200 seats with Angela Rayner and Yvette Cooper beaten by Reform, new poll suggests
IndependentDEC 24 2024
UK Poll: Labour Would Lose 184 Seats in Hypothetical Election
Above: People queue for a photo of the Elizabeth Tower, London, UK. Image copyright: Benedikt von Imhoff/picture alliance via Getty Images
The Facts
An MRP [Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification] poll by More in Common, surveying over 11K UK adults between Oct. 31 and Dec. 16, 2024, has concluded that the Labour government, who was elected in July, would lose nearly 200 seats if a new election were held.
The poll projects Labour would win 228 seats, Conservatives 222, Reform UK 72, the Liberal Democrats 58, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) 37, and the Green Party two — leading to a hung parliament as no party would reach the 326-seat majority threshold.
Seven cabinet ministers would hypothetically lose their seats, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, with six falling to Reform UK and one to an independent candidate.
The Spin
Left narrative
Labour offers the only credible path to rebuild the UK after years of Tory mismanagement. With bold steps to restore public services, address pay disparities, and invest in growth, Labour provides stability and progress. While critics focus on early challenges, Keir Starmer's leadership shows promise while the populist fantasies under Farage would deepen division and derail recovery. Labour must lead to ensure a fairer, stronger future for all.
Right narrative
Starmer's Labour has stalled the economy with anti-growth policies and record tax hikes. Gross domestic product has stagnated, leaving Britons poorer, while businesses face increased costs as investment flees. Internal divisions and weak leadership have compounded the party's failures. Starmer and his government are proving incapable of delivering the prosperity and stability the UK needs.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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