Maldives: Pres. Muizzu's Party Wins Parliamentary Polls

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The Spin

Narrative A

With Muizzu's party securing a supermajority, it's clear voters have strongly endorsed his pro-China stand. Now he has the political muscle to reduce India's long-standing influence on the Maldives, push forward a more balanced foreign policy, and foster closer economic and defense cooperation with global powerhouse China.

Narrative B

Unfortunately, this vote will accelerate the Maldives' shift away from traditional ally India in favor of China, which has been aggressive on the world stage. Plus, Muizzu's two-thirds majority in parliament could allow him to destroy the country's democratic values. He can amend the constitution, control the judiciary, and compromise national sovereignty by giving China too much influence.

Metaculus Prediction


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