Mali: Prime Minister Fired After Junta Criticism

Mali: Prime Minister Fired After Junta Criticism
Above: Mali's Prime Minister Choguel Maiga attends an interview with AFP on Sept. 26, 2021 in New York. Image copyright: Kena Betancur/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin


Narrative A

Maiga's sacking shows the junta is dangerously consolidating power. As the Malian people face a 90% poverty rate and collapsing social services and infrastructure, such a move only increases the chances of social instability and violence. This point in Malian history, especially as Russia grows its influence in the region, requires public faith in government — not a rogue military dictatorship.


Narrative B

It's important to remember where the bulk of Mali's troubles come from. The US and its Western partners have destabilized Mali with failed counterterrorism policies, training coup leaders, and ineffective UN missions. Violence has surged exponentially since 2002, while interventions deepened mistrust, ignored local grievances, undermined sovereignty, and left civilians increasingly vulnerable.


Metaculus Prediction


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