Mayoral candidate, young girl among 6 people shot dead at campaign rally in Mexico
CBSMay 26
Mexico: Another Mayoral Candidate Shot Dead
Image copyright: Azael Rodriguez/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
Alfredo Cabrera, who was running for mayor in the town of Coyuca de Benítez, was gunned down ahead of his closing campaign rally in the Mexican state of Guerrero.
The attack at point-blank range on Wednesday reportedly unfolded as Cabrera, the candidate for the opposition coalition, was preparing to address about 300 supporters.
The Spin
Narrative A
It has become quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.
Narrative B
While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.
Metaculus Prediction
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