NKorea Confirms Ballistic Missile Test Launch

NKorea Confirms Ballistic Missile Test Launch
Above: May 31, 2023 Image copyright: Chung Sung-Jun/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though Kim may seem like an irrational actor, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief after successive American administrations derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.

Pro-establishment narrative

As much as North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and threaten war with bombastic rhetoric, it would be best for Pyongyang not to push this too far. Its current rate of military drills will be near-impossible to sustain, and the North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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