Papua Rebels Might Release Kidnapped New Zealand Pilot

Papua Rebels Might Release Kidnapped New Zealand Pilot
Image copyright: Ulet Ifansasti / Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images (Aug. 15, 2013)

The Spin

Narrative A

Papua's demand for recognition of independence in exchange for a hostage is a desperate attempt to attract international attention toward the West Papuan crisis. Instead of using the pilot as a pawn for high-level political negotiations, the rebels should call for the UN to mediate the conflict.

Narrative B

This incident has renewed attention to one of the world's least-known and longest-running conflicts, which is why the TPNPB shouldn't lose its bargaining position. It should only free Mehrtens if Indonesia allows Papua to become a sovereign country after more than six decades.

Metaculus Prediction


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