China’s economy grew 5.3% in first quarter, beating expectations
Associated PressMAR 27 2024
Report: China's GDP Grows 5.3% in Q1 2024
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The Facts
According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, the PRC's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024.
The country's stronger-than-expected growth comes after a 5.2% rise in 2023's fourth quarter, beating the forecast of 4.6% by a Reuters poll of analysts.
Compared to the previous quarter, the PRC's GDP grew 1.6%, coming in at ¥29.63T ($4.09T) in Q1. The data shows that retail sales rose 4.7% in the January-to-March period.
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
China's economy has grown faster than expected in the first three months of the year despite COVID, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the US-China trade war. Given the country's stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing capital expenditure and several fiscal and monetary policy measures taking effect, the PRC's second-quarter GDP would accelerate to over 5.5%, consolidating the economic recovery in 2024.
Anti-China narrative
While China's growth has been stronger than anticipated, it's uneven. The world's second-largest economy is battling real estate crises, unemployment, deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and mounting government debt. Just this week alone, the blue-chip CSI300 Index tumbled 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite indexes fell 1%. Despite the "promising" data, it's clear that momentum is waning in the Chinese economy.
Metaculus Prediction
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