Russia Captures Vuhledar in Donetsk

Russia Captures Vuhledar in Donetsk
Above: A member of Ukraine's 68th Jaeger brigade fires a M240 machine gun during a night training exercise. Image copyright: Alice Martins/The Washington Post/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Russian forces have captured the Donetsk town of Vuhledar, Ukraine's military confirmed on Wednesday, after geolocated footage showed them freely roaming the town and raising Russian flags from a number of buildings.

  • The Russian news agency TASS, citing sources in the country's defense ministry, reported that its forces have cleared Ukrainian troops from the town — referred to as Ugledar in Russia.

  • The news was also spread on the SHOT Telegram channel, as well as among pro-Russian war bloggers, who said that Moscow's troops had complete control of the town which Russia claims to have annexed since 2022, though Kyiv has deemed this illegal.

The Spin

Narrative A

The capture of Vuhledar is significant because of its proximity to important frontline areas, and because it lies on high ground that will facilitate further Russian artillery attacks. Its capture could hasten further Russian advances in the region.

Narrative B

Russia's seizure of Vuhledar follows a series of costly, failed assaults over the course of two years of war. Its fall is unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine's defense, as it was not a particularly important logistics location, and because Russian forces have controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar prior to its capture.

Metaculus Prediction

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