S. Korea's Yoon Faces Treason Probe Over Martial Law Crisis

S. Korea's Yoon Faces Treason Probe Over Martial Law Crisis
Above: People march in heavy rain to protest against South Korean Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol, as strike and protests continue amid the martial law crisis, in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 5, 2024. Image copyright: Daniel Ceng/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Yoon clearly violated constitutional and legal requirements with acts that amount to insurrection and treason, such as deploying special forces to occupy the National Assembly and arrest opposition leaders. He failed to point to any constitutionally approved grounds for martial law, bypassed cabinet review, and failed to notify to the National Assembly, undermining democratic checks and balances in South Korea.

Narrative B

While Pres. Yoon’s martial law declaration was a grave mistake, the deeper issue lies in South Korea’s polarized politics. The clash between an overpowered opposition and a fragile presidency reflects systemic flaws, including outdated electoral rules and power centralization. Without reform, such divisions will continue to destabilize the nation, regardless of who is in office.

Metaculus Prediction


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