SKorea: Opposition Wins Parliamentary Election

SKorea: Opposition Wins Parliamentary Election
Image copyright: Chung Sung-Jun/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

South Korea's liberal opposition party won a landslide victory in the general election because President Yoon failed to adequately handle the rising cost of living and the challenges associated with an increasing elderly population. The Democratic Party pledged to lead the way in resolving the economic crisis, but it will require legislators from all parties to focus on addressing financial turbulence.

Narrative B

South Korea's general election dealt a huge blow to President Yoon's administration. However, avoiding the supermajority of two-thirds opposition domination, which could pass constitutional modifications and overcome presidential vetoes, actually proved to be a blessing in disguise. Yoon will most likely be a lame duck in domestic politics for the remaining three years of his presidency, leaving him free to focus on his foreign policy agenda — an arena where he's more effective.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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