Chinese Military Base in the Solomon Islands
MetaculusFEB 23 2023
Solomon Islands PM Faces No-Confidence Vote
Above: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele attended a ceremonial welcome at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, on June 26, 2024. Image copyright: Hilary Wardhaugh/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Facts
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele faces a no-confidence motion filed by former Prime Minister Gordon Darcy Lilo, just eight months into his leadership and one day after the government's annual budget presentation.
The motion, which requires a seven-day waiting period before debate, could potentially impact a pending police training agreement between the Solomon Islands and Australia that was scheduled to be announced this week.
This comes amid controversy over Manele's OUR Party with reports that, two months before this year's election, its president and then-Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare's son set up a shell company — known as the OUR International Development Fund — in Singapore, alongside a Chinese partner.
The Spin
Narrative A
Lilo's decision to initiate a vote of no confidence comes before Manele has even had time to get his feet under the table. This threatens to de-rail the budget presentation and could undermine major foreign accords, including critical police training cooperation with Australia that would boost national security.
Narrative B
The current administration is not performing well and a vote of no-confidence is justified. Manele has failed to control his ministers, resulting in a mismanaged economy that is spiraling downwards. Additionally, there are issues concerning the effective administration of duty exemptions provided to business associates. The establishment of an offshore company in Singapore also raises serious questions regarding accountability and transparency.
Metaculus Prediction
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