Sri Lanka: Pres. Dissanayake's Coalition Wins Snap Polls

Sri Lanka: Pres. Dissanayake's Coalition Wins Snap Polls
Above: Pres. Anura Kumara Dissanayake leaves a polling station after casting his ballot to vote in Sri Lanka's parliamentary election in Colombo on Nov. 14, 2024. Image copyright: ISHARA S. KODIKARA/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In Thursday's snap elections, Pres. Anura Kumara Dissanayake's National People's Power (NPP) coalition secured 159 seats in Sri Lanka's 225-member parliament, exceeding a two-thirds majority.

  • Out of 225 seats, 196 were to be directly elected, while 29 were to be allocated based on the proportional vote obtained by each party. The NPP won 141 seats through direct election and 18 through the National List.


The Spin

Narrative A

This election is a critical turning point for Sri Lanka. The sweeping mandate, including surprise backing from minority groups, is an unprecedented vote for change and grants Dissanayake greater power to implement anti-poverty and anti-corruption policies. The NPP represents a clean break from corrupt traditional politics and offers real systemic change through anti-corruption measures, economic reforms, and abolishing the executive presidency — essential for Sri Lanka's recovery from its longstanding financial crisis.

Narrative B

Dissanayake is a self-avowed Marxist, while his coalition has few leaders with governance and policy-making experience. The rapid rise of an inexperienced NPP leadership threatens stability and economic recovery, while its Marxist-leaning policies could jeopardize the IMF agreement and international debt restructuring efforts. Sri Lanka's economic situation remains precarious — how the country progresses from this point and carries through the reforms while navigating international commitments will be a real challenge for the new government.


Metaculus Prediction


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!