1 in 8 people worldwide has obesity
New ScientistFeb 25
Study: Obese Children May Have Half the Average Life Expectancy
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The Facts
According to a study from the German life sciences consultancy Stradoo GmbH, children who are severely obese at the age of four have a life expectancy of 39 — about half the average life expectancy in the UK — if they don't lose weight.
The body mass index (BMI) Z-score of a healthy 103 cm-tall four-year-old boy weighing 16.5 kg (36.4 lbs) will be zero, while boys of the same age and height having 19.5 kg (43 lbs) and 22.7 kg (50 lbs) weight will have a score of 2 and 3.5 respectively.
The Spin
Narrative A
While childhood obesity is unquestionably on the rise and comes with severe risks, the BMI Z-score appears to be outdated as it doesn't correctly measure excess fat. To prevent healthy children from being told they are unhealthy, it would be better to use a more appropriate waist-to-height ratio, which will more accurately tell someone if their body has put on too many pounds.
Narrative B
BMI Z-scores correlate strongly with fat measurements, so there's no need to question the rise in childhood obesity. The problem is also made clear when obese children develop cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and diabetes while their healthy peers do not. Children are hurting, and these data need to be taken seriously and followed up with public health measures that are serious and effective.
Metaculus Prediction
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