Study: Sudan War Death Toll Much Higher Than Records Show

Study: Sudan War Death Toll Much Higher Than Records Show
Above: Members of Sudan's armed forces attend a graduation ceremony for new recruits in the eastern city of Gedaref on Nov. 5, 2024. Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

While informative reports like this are vital, the actual death toll from the Sudan conflict could be as high as 125K civilians — due to both violence and hunger. Sudan currently has the most extensive and dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today. Despite these facts, Western media and institutions refuse to give it the coverage it deserves, which is likely why few people know how awful the crisis truly is.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UN meticulously tracks both violence- and health-related deaths in Sudan to assess the conflict's severity and coordinate effective humanitarian responses. While this data helps to inform resource allocation and intervention strategies, the UN requires much more funding to address escalating needs. Millions of people will face dire consequences if the world doesn't step up and give the Sudanese what they need.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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