Who will win the civil war in Sudan?
MetaculusMAY 2024
Sudan Exits Global Hunger Monitoring System
Above: A Sudanese citizen cooks Kawal leaves collected from nearby trees at a camp for the internally displaced persons in Kadugli, South Kordofan state, on June 18, 2024. Image copyright: GUY PETERSON/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The government's withdrawal from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification system is a defensive measure to protect national sovereignty and dignity, as the monitoring system lacks updated malnutrition data and proper crop productivity assessments from the successful summer growing season. Instead of acting as a critical early-warning system to address food emergencies in Sudan, the Western-funded organization has been issuing unreliable reports to fulfill the West's propaganda.
Narrative B
The suspension of Integrated Food Security Phase Classification participation is a deliberate attempt to obstruct humanitarian efforts and downplay the severity of the crisis, as evidenced by previous delays in famine determination and restrictions on aid worker visas, particularly in hard-hit regions like Darfur. Withdrawing from the agency will not change the grim reality. It removes a critical tool for the international community to assess and respond accurately to the serious hunger crises.