Taiwan: Ruling Party's Lai Wins Presidential Election

Taiwan: Ruling Party's Lai Wins Presidential Election
Image copyright: Annabelle Chih/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

Voters have ignored threats from Beijing, demonstrating their commitment to the island's democracy as well as to its de facto sovereignty. Hopefully, the PRC will finally realize that intimidating the Taiwanese people doesn't work and understand that only peace can promote stability across the Strait. If not, then it's better for Taiwan to have bolstered defenses and deeper ties with other democratic nations.

Pro-China narrative

Taiwan belongs to China, and no election will ever obstruct the inevitable national reunification. That's even more true now as results clearly revealed that voters gave no mandate for the DPP to represent the mainstream public opinion on the island. Beijing wants peace, but it will firmly oppose separatist activities and foreign interference.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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