Taiwan: William Lai Sworn in as President

Taiwan: William Lai Sworn in as President
Above: Taiwan's new President Lai Ching-te gives a speech at his inauguration ceremony on May 20, 2024 in Taipei, Taiwan. Image copyright: Annabelle Chih/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

Lai is divisive and determined to undermine cross-Strait peace and stability in the region. If he implements secessionist policies, the People's Liberation Army is always ready to intervene. The new president must always remember that there's a One China policy — that even the US agreed to — and Taiwan is a part of China.

Anti-China narrative

China has tried various strategies to sway Taiwan, but Taiwanese voters continue to elect leaders it opposes. Despite Lai winning only a plurality in the election, strong anti-unification sentiment prevails on the island. Beijing must stop its military and political threats and work jointly with Taipei for peace.

Narrative C

As US-China relations worsen, Taiwan's defiance grows. This escalating tension risks dangerous confrontations, which is why Lai must find ways to appease China while maintaining Taiwan's unique global position to avoid further instability.

Metaculus Prediction


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