Harris sees betting odds shrink over Trump to razor-thin margin less than a month before the election
IndependentOct 10
Trump Narrows Harris' Lead in New Poll, Surges Ahead on Betting Markets
Above: Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives for a rally at Dodge County Airport on October 06, 2024 in Juneau, Wisconsin. Image copyright: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released on Monday, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris saw her popular vote lead over former Pres. Donald Trump narrow following the vice presidential debate last week.
Among registered voters her advantage fell from 48% to 46% in a two-way race, and from 46% to 45% when other candidates are included.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
It's hard to posit that Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris when most polls are weighting on recalled vote, a controversial and less accurate method that tends to help whoever lost the previous election. Traditional polls still tell a completely different story, and betting markets are no reliable indicator at all.
Republican narrative
With Election Day less than a month away, polls and popular online betting markets are unequivocal that Trump is gaining momentum in the race. Democrats may claim that they aren't worried, but their actions prove otherwise.