Tunisia’s Saied sets presidential election date for October 6
Al JazeeraJun 26
Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Arrested
Above: Tunisian President Kais Saied attends a signing ceremony with Chinese President Xi Jinping (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People on May 31, 2024 in Beijing, China. Image copyright: Tingshu Wang/Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
Ahead of the Oct. 6 Tunisian presidential election, opposition candidate Ayachi Zammel was arrested on Monday on allegations of fabricating campaign endorsements. Zammel is one of two individuals approved to challenge incumbent Pres. Kais Saied
Besides Zammel, a liberal figure, and Zouhair Maghzaoui, from the left-wing People's Movement, fourteen others had their bids to join the race denied by Tunisia's electoral commission. Three of these successfully appealed these rulings in court, but the electoral commission declined to reinstate them.
The Spin
Narrative A
Tunisia under Saied has become an authoritarian state, as he dashes the dreams of democracy that the country had after the Arab Spring. Since coming to power, Saied has made blatant power grabs and has consolidated his control over the country, with these disqualifications and arrests of opposition figures being prime examples. These upcoming elections will be neither free nor fair.
Narrative B
Saied's reforms were desperately needed to ensure the country doesn't fall into the cycles of violence and stagnation that preceded his rule. The widespread acceptance of these reforms is perhaps reflected in the inability of opposition figures to garner signatures without resorting to fraud, while they make baseless claims of obstruction. The noise made by the opposition is clearly sour grapes.
Metaculus Prediction
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