UK Elections: Crime

UK Elections: Crime
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The Facts

  • Overview: Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) reported 8.4M headline crimes in the year up to December 2023, a 6.5% decrease from the twelve months prior (9.0M), and 25% since data began including fraud and computer misuse in March 2017. In 2023, criminal damage fell by 18%, homicide by 6% and fraud by 16%. In contrast, computer misuse increased by 29%, alongside rises in firearm offenses (9%), knife/sharp instrument crime (7%), shoplifting (37%), and theft (18%). As of March 2023, there were 171K police officers in the UK, a 20K increase from 2016 but 1K less than in 2010.

  • Current state: The UK's latest (2022) policing assessment claims England and Wales are "arguably safer than... ever," but their forces face a "long-term trend of rising demand" and a major crisis, with "unacceptably low" public trust and "widespread systemic failings" in the police and criminal justice system. In addition, the Home Office's 2024 Police Covenant report highlighted "extreme fatigue" as an area of growing concern due to increasing pressures on officers and staff. The National Crime Agency cited geopolitical instability, the cost of living, and advancements in technology as contributing towards a rise in "serious and organised crime."


The Spin

Tory narrative

Currently failing to solve 90% of reported crimes, police are in need of major reform. While fixated on regulating free speech and appeasing sensitive ideologies, the UK's police force have for too long allowed mob behavior, criminal gangs, and rampant antisemitism to go unchecked. As is apparent across the entirety of Western civilization, police have forgotten their duty to protect the public and continue to let crime fester unchecked.

Labour narrative

Keir Starmer's prioritization of crime highlights Labour's commitment to addressing this pressing issue. As knife crime, violence against women, and growing court backlogs plague British society, Sunak and the Tories have chosen to ignore the dangerous consequences. By understanding the effects of poverty and underinvestment while sending a tough message to those threatening the country's security, Starmer and Labour are dedicated to making the UK safe again.

Reform narrative

Years of carefree border control have encouraged a spike in criminal activity stemming from foreign offenders. Mainstream parties continue to ignore the elephant in the room — prioritizing political correctness over the British people. While the government continues to hide damning statistics proving the UK to be but one country in a wider trend of migrant crime, the truth is there for all to see on the country's streets.

Progressive narrative

The public cannot trust an inherently corrupt and flawed system to provide fair protection under the law. Only through class struggle and grassroots activism can reform guaranteeing true de facto equality be implemented, allowing the UK to break free from its long history of oppression.


Metaculus Prediction



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