Can Rishi Sunak reduce the Tories’ losses?
Spectator (UK)JUN 2024
UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat
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The Spin
Tory narrative
It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as strong a representation in Parliament as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.
Labour narrative
While Labour’s ascension to power is practically inevitable, securing as large a majority as possible remains a priority that will allow Keir Starmer to govern quickly and effectively. Labour has a lot to fix after a decade-plus of Tory rule, and an overwhelming majority in Parliament would allow the party to govern as it pleases. Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.
Reform narrative
Despite Savanta's prediction that Reform will win no seats, it is important to note that polling began only days after Farage's return to the helm of the party, which has since witnessed a surge in popularity. Irrespectively, the message is clear — Sunak and his party no longer hold the support of the British public.