Ukraine Makes First Acknowledgement of Kursk Offensive

Ukraine Makes First Acknowledgement of Kursk Offensive
Above: Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the president of Ukraine, gives an interview to the Ukrainian media on June 15, 2023. Image copyright: Global Images Ukraine/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • For the first time since launching an offensive into Russia's Kursk region earlier this week, Ukraine acknowledged its role in the assault on Thursday, justifying it as a means of achieving peace in its country.

  • In an interview with domestic television, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said: "Do they [Russia] respond to anything other than fear? No, this needs to be understood. Russia sees any compromise as a sign of weakness and readiness to submit. Negotiations can only be productive if they understand the war is not going according to their script."

  • Later on Telegram, he added: "Russia has consistently believed that prohibitive legal norms do not apply to it, allowing it to attack neighboring countries with impunity while hypocritically demanding the inviolability of its own territories. But war has its rules, and the aggressor always reaps the consequences."

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US supports Ukraine's right to defend itself from Russian aggression, including if it feels it has to attack inside Russia's Kursk region to achieve its war aims. These attacks are not escalatory.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia sees any form of compromise as a sign of weakness. Therefore, it must be made to feel that the war is not going according to its plans for peace to be eventually achieved in Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

This is a large-scale provocation from Ukraine who are indiscriminately firing weapons at civilian buildings and residential homes. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin is meeting with military heads to ensure that the threat is eliminated.

Metaculus Prediction




Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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