Venezuela: Maduro Wins 3rd Presidential Term

Venezuela: Maduro Wins 3rd Presidential Term
Above: President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro celebrates after winning the presidential election at Miraflores Palace on July 28, 2024 in Caracas, Venezuela. Image copyright: Alfredo Lasry R/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

In the most transparent, peaceful elections in the country's history, the incumbent president cleanly and unequivocally defeated a pro-imperialist. The opposition must accept the results or document any alleged fraud and make its findings public. If it can't — which it will not — it should stop trying to tarnish Venezuela's democracy and allow Maduro to rebuild the country and salvage its economy.

Narrative B

Maduro's victory was neither free nor fair. The opposition was denied access to most of the voting tallies, preventing the verification of the results. This outcome doesn't reflect the will of the Venezuelan voters, who wanted an end to Maduro's decade-old autocratic rule. The government resorted to fraud to win, but González is Venezuela's rightful president-elect.

Narrative C

This result will have repercussions beyond Venezuela. Venezuela is in a deep economic, political, and social crisis, forcing over 7.8M people to flee the country. This exodus could increase, as Maduro's victory will mean more state-sponsored repression, an imploding economy, and the continued erosion of democratic checks and balances. The international implications of this election need greater focus.

Metaculus Prediction


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