White House: Pakistan's Ballistic Missiles a Threat to US

White House: Pakistan's Ballistic Missiles a Threat to US
Above: A Pakistan military vehicle carries a long-range ballistic missile Shaheen during the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2022. Image copyright: GHULAM RASOOL/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The US' increasingly aggressive stance and its latest sanctions targeting Pakistan's ballistic missile program appear more reflexive than strategic. This will hardly dent Pakistan's capabilities while pushing it toward greater reliance on nuclear deterrence and deeper alignment with China. The country's missile program has evolved beyond the point where such sanctions could impede its progress.

Narrative B

Washington's mounting concerns over Pakistan's advancing missile capabilities are justified. The US sanctions against Pakistan's state-owned entities and private firms reflect a belated recognition of Pakistan's sophisticated weapons program, which now includes the Ababeel missile — South Asia's first such weapon with multiple independently targetable warheads. More needs to be done to curb these dangerous capabilities.

Metaculus Prediction


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