Australia Awards Japan $10B Contract for Naval Frigates

Australia Awards Japan $10B Contract for Naval Frigates
Above: An Australian Navy landing craft in Australia on July 15, 2025. Image copyright: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

This frigate deal is a smart strategic investment that addresses Australia's urgent naval capability gaps. The Mogami-class offers superior firepower with four times the missile capacity of current ships, advanced stealth features, and proven Japanese manufacturing quality. Getting the first ship by 2029 beats any alternative timeline, and the lower lifecycle costs make this the most economical choice for taxpayers.

Right narrative

Japan's limited experience in exporting complex military equipment overseas poses significant risks to this substantial investment. The upgraded Mogami design does not yet exist, and Australia has historically been a demanding customer that makes extensive modifications. If delivery delays or technical problems emerge, this could seriously damage the crucial Australia-Japan strategic relationship.

Metaculus Prediction


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