Belarus Releases Three Detainees Including US Citizen

Belarus Releases Three Detainees Including US Citizen
Above: White House news Secretary Karoline Leavitt speaking on recent prisoner release deals on Feb. 12, 2025. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Belarus has released three detainees, including an unidentified American citizen and Andrey Kuznechyk, a journalist for US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, who had been imprisoned for over three years on charges of participating in an extremist organization.

  • The third released detainee was identified as Belarusian activist Alena Maushuk, who was detained in 2020 and sentenced to six years for allegedly participating in mass riots, and is reportedly in serious health condition according to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

  • US officials, including Deputy Assistant Secretary Chris Smith, conducted a special operation by crossing into Belarus to meet with authorities in Minsk, where the detainees were handed over before being transported to Lithuania.

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

The release represents a diplomatic victory for the Trump administration and demonstrates the president's deal-making abilities, coming immediately after successfully negotiating Marc Fogel's release from Russia, showing America's commitment to bringing its citizens home.

Anti-Trump narrative

The releases appear to be cynical moves by Belarusian President Lukashenko to repair relations with the West following years of sanctions imposed over domestic repression and support for Russia's actions in Ukraine, rather than genuine reform of its approach to political dissent. Trump's dealings with authoritarian regimes must be closely scrutinized.

Metaculus Prediction




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