Non-BJP Indian PM before 2030
MetaculusAPR 2 2022
India: Modi's BJP Wins Delhi Election After 27 Years
Above: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign as he arrives at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party's win in the Delhi legislative assembly election in New Delhi on Feb. 8, 2025. Image copyright: SAJJAD HUSSAIN/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The BJP's historic victory highlights the success of its double-engine governance model and validates its anti-corruption campaign against AAP. The party's strategic focus on development and Modi's leadership appeal and matching welfare promises helped secure support across social classes, particularly among the middle class and prosperous voters.
Narrative B
AAP's defeat stems from systematic targeting through central agencies and administrative choking that paralyzed governance. The party's welfare initiatives and focus on education and healthcare were overshadowed by political persecution, while the multiplicity of authorities in Delhi prevented effective administration.