China's Q1 Growth Beats Forecasts Amid Looming Trade War

China's Q1 Growth Beats Forecasts Amid Looming Trade War
Above: Vehicles awaiting shipment at the Port of Nanjing in Jiangsu province, China, on April 16, 2025.  Image copyright: CFOTO/Contributor/Future Publishing via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

The strong first-quarter performance demonstrates China's economic resilience and ability to weather external challenges through robust domestic consumption and industrial innovation. The PRC maintains strong policy tools to support growth and stabilize the economy.

Anti-China narrative

The better-than-expected GDP figures mask underlying weaknesses and are largely front-loaded due to pre-tariff export rush, while persistent property sector problems and looming trade war impacts threaten to significantly slow growth in coming quarters. China's economic outlook is far from stable.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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