Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
MetaculusNOV 2024
Peace Talks Between DRC, M23 Begin in Qatar
Above: Soldiers of the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel armed group are seen in Goma, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 7, 2025. Image copyright: Zanem Nety Zaidi/Contributor/Xinhua via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Congolese people continue to suffer in eastern DRC as millions have been forced out of their homes over the past three years — dialogue is crucial to break this never-ending cycle of violence. It's about time to address the root causes of this conflict, such as the legitimate grievances of rebels and Rwanda's interference in the country.
Narrative B
M23 is committed to peace negotiations, and its actions reassert just that. Yet, Kinshasa may rest assured that provocations or attacks against civilians in the liberated areas and its other positions will trigger a strong response to eliminate the threat at its source.