DRC and Rwanda Sign Preliminary Peace Deal

DRC and Rwanda Sign Preliminary Peace Deal
Above: M23 rebel soldiers board pickup trucks in Goma on May 18, 2025. Image copyright: JOSPIN MWISHA/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

This agreement is a breakthrough in DRC-Rwanda relations. After days of meticulous negotiation, the treaty settles all areas of contention, from territorial integrity to the status of refugees, while fostering closer ties between the two countries via economic integration and the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism. Combined, the treaty will bring a troubled region closer to peace and harmony.

Narrative B

While the agreement is welcome, to truly secure peace, the U.S. has to be willing to invest in it. By funding local projects to develop infrastructure and support livelihoods, as well as by providing security, the U.S. can change incentive structures to promote peace and discourage conflict. Otherwise, the lack of material difference will cause this agreement to fail like those before it.

Metaculus Prediction


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