Earth Breaches 1.5°C Warming Mark for First Time in 2024

Earth Breaches 1.5°C Warming Mark for First Time in 2024
Above: A man rows his boat through the frozen surface of Dal Lake on Jan. 2, 2025 in Srinagar, India. Image copyright: Waseem Andrabi/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

This single-year breach doesn't constitute a permanent violation of the Paris Agreement's long-term target, which is measured using a 20-year average. Natural annual variability, including El Niño, contributed to the record temperatures, which may decrease with La Niña conditions in the coming years.

Narrative B

This record-breaking feat is a warning sign that climate action is insufficient and current policies are failing to protect the planet from dangerous warming levels. The unprecedented temperatures are already causing widespread devastation through extreme weather events, threatening millions of lives and livelihoods. While El Niño contributed to the warming, human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of the temperature increase.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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