Ecuador's Daniel Noboa Sworn In for Full Term

Ecuador's Daniel Noboa Sworn In for Full Term
Above: Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and his wife, Lavinia Valbonesi, greet supporters from the balcony of the Carondelet Palace in Quito, Ecuador, on May 24, 2025. Image copyright: David Diaz Arcos/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

It's concerning that Daniel Noboa is on track to transform his country into an authoritarian police state similar to El Salvador with his crime bill, despite his previous attempts to distance himself from Nayib Bukele. Unless Ecuador shifts its focus to address the root causes of violence, the war against drug cartels will be an ineffective endeavor that can only undermine democracy and the rule of law.

Right narrative

Tough security measures are exactly what Ecuador needs to combat the unprecedented violence rates that have made the country the most dangerous in South America, so it's only natural that Noboa will continue to pursue the successful model of El Salvador. After all, a militarized approach in his first 18 months in office led to a reduction in homicides last year.

Metaculus Prediction



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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