Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
MetaculusOCT 28 2024
El Salvador Ends Public Funding for Political Parties
Above: Nayib Bukele at Casa Presidencial on Jan. 14, 2025 in San Salvador, El Salvador. Image copyright: Alex Peña/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
This legislative change is a necessary step toward reducing corruption and wasteful spending of taxpayer money. Political parties should be self-sufficient and earn support through legitimate means rather than relying on government handouts. This reform will enhance transparency and reduce the influence of money in politics.
Narrative B
Removing public funding for political parties severely undermines democracy, by creating an uneven playing field that favors wealthy interests and the ruling party. Smaller parties and emerging political movements will struggle to compete effectively without state support, potentially leading to a one-party dominant system.