EU Border Crossings Drop 31% as Migration Policies Tighten

    EU Border Crossings Drop 31% as Migration Policies Tighten
    Above: A Spanish Salvamento Maritimo vessel rescues 136 Senegalese 'cayuco' boats with 40 women and 17 children at sea on Nov. 28, 2024, in La Restinga harbor on El Hierro. Image copyright: Antonio Sempere/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    The decrease in migration numbers demonstrates the effectiveness of EU deterrence measures and enhanced border control cooperation with third countries, particularly in the Western Balkans where active steps against criminal smuggling networks have yielded significant results.

    Narrative B

    The declining numbers mask a humanitarian crisis as migrants face increased risks and human rights abuses, with many being contained in horrific conditions in Libya and Tunisia, while others are forced to take more dangerous routes, leading to continued loss of life in the Mediterranean.

    Narrative C

    It's too early to be celebrating these figures, which come following a period of intense storms sweeping Italy. Although heightened border security is certainly having some impact, Frontex's figures are only based on detected illegal entries, and with criminal gangs becoming ever more sophisticated, there's a decent chance that many more migrants are going undetected than ever before.

    Metaculus Prediction


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