The deflation process is well on track, with inflation developing broadly in line with expectations. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle around the 2% target on a sustained basis, while monetary policy transmission is working effectively throughout the continent. The soft landing is nearly complete, leaving Europe as a stable market to invest in over the medium term.
Unexpectedly low inflation in Europe is a sign of a stagnant economy that continues to lag behind the US since the pandemic. In addition, the EU's large-scale investment in defense is likely to push inflation too far in the other direction and stretch budgets to the limit across the continent. While the statistics may look positive at first glance, a deeper inspection finds a precarious European market still in need of reform.