Former Israeli Defense Minister Claims Cease-fire Agreement Same as April Deal

    Former Israeli Defense Minister Claims Cease-fire Agreement Same as April Deal
    Above: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (L) visit the site of the shooting where a settler was killed and another seriously injured in Hebron, West Bank on Aug. 21, 2023.  Image copyright: Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO)/Contributor/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Left narrative

    The government's hesitation and political considerations severely compromised Israel's security interests and hostage recovery efforts. The rejection of the October Hezbollah strike represents the greatest missed military opportunity in Israeli history, while the delayed acceptance of the hostage deal resulted in fewer rescued captives at a higher cost.

    Right narrative

    Opening a second front against Hezbollah immediately after Oct. 7 would have been strategically dangerous, and the timing of military operations needed careful consideration. The accumulation of additional resources over time enabled more effective operations against both Hamas and Hezbollah.

    Pro-Palestine narrative

    In addition to confirming that Netanyahu was the primary obstacle to a cease-fire in Gaza, Gallant also confirmed that Israel killed swaths of its own people on Oct. 7. Indeed, though the Western media have repeatedly worked to tacitly back Israeli claims about Oct. 7 and the war, Israeli officials themselves have admitted that these narratives are not based in reality.

    Metaculus Prediction



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