France, Germany Launch Defense Council

France, Germany Launch Defense Council
Above: French President Emmanuel Macron (right) welcomes German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during his inaugural visit to Paris, France, on May 7, 2025. Image copyright: Michael Kappeler/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

France and Germany are offering a much-needed show of leadership as Russian aggression persists and U.S. reliability wanes under Trump. With Europe facing unprecedented security threats, the Franco-German reset will unify Europe as one force against global enemies. This bold step counters Russia's war on Ukraine and fills the gap left by the U.S.' retreat, proving Europe can shape its own secure future.

Narrative B

The Franco-German defense spending pledge is misguided, not leadership. Europe's rush to militarize against Russian aggression overstates the threat and ignores U.S. military dominance, despite Trump's rhetoric. Plans like a potential €800 billion EU defense fund risk economic strain without strategic clarity. Europe should seek an end to the Ukraine war, not fuel more death and destruction, as this illiberal shift betrays the EU's values of peace.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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