France, UK Lead European Force Plan for Postwar Ukraine

    France, UK Lead European Force Plan for Postwar Ukraine
    Above: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is greeted by French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of the "Coalition Of The Willing" summit in support of Ukraine at Elysee Palace on March 27, 2025 in Paris, France. Image copyright: Antoine Gyori/Contributor/Corbis via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-Europe narrative

    Europe must take charge of its own defense, as the U.S. drifts away from its global commitments. With Ukraine as the frontline of European security, ensuring its resilience against Russia is imperative. Financially and militarily, Europe has the means — funding, weaponry, and air defense — to sustain Ukraine and deter further aggression. A well-supported Ukrainian military, backed by European airpower, can safeguard the continent without waiting for uncertain American leadership. The time to act is now.

    Pro-Trump narrative

    Europe needs to step up and support American national interests much more, and contribute more fairly to collective defense. Decades of unfair reliance on American power have left European nations underprepared, with fragmented defenses and insufficient capabilities. The U.S. provides critical deterrence, intelligence, and logistical strength — without it, Europe stands vulnerable, unable to mount a unified or effective defense against Russian aggression.

    Metaculus Prediction



    The Controversies



    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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