German Conservatives, SPD Reach Coalition Deal

German Conservatives, SPD Reach Coalition Deal
Above: Friedrich Merz (center), the CDU candidate for German Chancellor, sits between fellow CDU leaders ahead of the meeting of the CDU Federal Executive Committee in Berlin, Germany, on March 10, 2025. Image copyright: Michael Kappeler/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Successful centrist coalition talks are a positive sign amid the growing presence of extremist parties on both sides. Germany has failed to prevent economic recession and fix immigration issues, but the solution isn't to let the far-right AfD or far-left BSW snatch the reins of power. If the CDU and CSU wish to maintain a centrist country, they'll have to fix the economy and show voters that they can defend against Russia without hurting the economy.

Establishment-critical narrative

This coalition isn't trying to retain centrist policies but rather an elitist status quo that has destroyed workers in favor of radical green energy and mass migration agendas. Large portions of the country, most notably the industrial lands of the southwest, have seen voters leave the CDU for the AfD due to economic reasons. Voter discontent will only grow if the ruling regime thinks it can apply old solutions to new problems.

Metaculus Prediction


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