Antibiotic emergency ‘could claim 40 million lives in next 25 years’
GuardianDEC 24 2024
UK Health Official: Antimicrobial-Resistant Bacteria Could Kill 40M by 2050
Above: A technician holds a bacterial cell culture on an agar plate at Bugworks Research India Ltd. in Bengaluru, India, on May 31, 2018. Image copyright: Samyukta Lakshmi/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Facts
England's former chief medical officer, Dame Sally Davies, has warned that antimicrobial-resistant bacteria currently cause approximately 1M deaths annually. She projected that this figure will double by 2050, potentially claiming 40M lives over the next 25 years — particularly threatening the elderly.
Mortality rates from these types of bacteria have reportedly increased by 80% since 1990 for people over 70, while rates have decreased in children under five. This highlights a significant demographic shift in vulnerability.
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) deaths reportedly more than doubled from 57.2K in 1990 to 130K in 2021, while carbapenem-resistant bacteria caused 216K deaths in 2021.
The Spin
Narrative A
The pharmaceutical industry lacks financial incentives to develop new antibiotics since these drugs are used infrequently compared to daily medications for chronic conditions, creating a dangerous innovation gap in addressing the antimicrobial-resistant bacteria crisis. This innovation gap needs to be crossed to ensure better preparedness for the future.
Narrative B
Improving access to healthcare, enhancing infection prevention and control measures, and reducing inappropriate antibiotic use could reportedly save 92M lives between 2025 and 2050. This crisis is actually manageable right now if actions are coordinated immediately.
Narrative C
Simplistic narratives that produce fear need to be avoided when it comes to the threat of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria. Solving this complex public health challenge requires careful research, comprehensive public health surveillance, and collaborative solutions. Alarmism does not help.