Will Rio Grande do Sul suffer flooding by the end of March 2025?
Metaculus5 days ago
Argentina: Death Toll From Bahía Blanca Floods Rises to 16
Above: People walk through flooded waters in Bahia Blanca on March 8, 2025. Image copyright: Pablo Presti/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why we must implement policies to cool the global temperature, save lives, and avoid billions of dollars in damage.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before establishing any direct causal link between the two.